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An oil drilling rig along the Pecos River in the Permian Basin, Loving, New Mexico, U.S. (Photo: Jim … More West) UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images Conjecture about when U.S. oil production may plateau is not new. Many in the industry, including several energy bosses, reckon the country’s output — currently north of 13.5 million and the highest in the world — will continue to rise at least until 2027. In March, at CERAWeek 2025, a major energy event organized by S&P Global, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance and Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub joined many of their industry peers in predicting a U.S. crude production plateau sometime between 2027 and 2030. Now the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, has also predicted that a 2027 production plateau sounds fairly plausible. In its Annual Energy Outlook 2025 published on Wednesday, the EIA said U.S. production will rise to 14 million barrels per day in 2027, and may likely stabilize at or near that level for a few years up until the early 2030s, before a gradual decline comes into view. After that, a further decline may happen at a much faster rate through to the 2050s as the uptick from the U.S. shale bonanza starts to ebb away. Shale production itself is also expected to peak in 2027. It draws the contribution of U.S. shale industry into sharp focus. In 2024, U.S. output grew on an annualized basis by 2%, or by 270,000 bpd, to average around 13.2 million bpd. Nearly all the production growth came from the Permian region, which accounted for nearly half of total U.S. crude oil production, according to the EIA. Shale production is expected hit a record of 10 million bpd by 2027, up from 9.7 million bpd expected in…

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Filed under: News - @ April 17, 2025 8:26 pm