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Canada’s economy is getting smoked. The Small Business Confidence Index has collapsed nearly 60% in just a few months. That’s not a typo. Even at the lowest point of the 2008 financial crisis, confidence was 10 points higher than it is now. Things are falling apart. And no one’s even bothering to sugarcoat it. Confidence is crashing faster than it did during the March 2020 lockdowns. By early 2025, small business sentiment had already started slipping. But once the trade war with the U.S. kicked off, it dropped to 25—the lowest reading ever recorded. Nothing else comes close. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X Consumer confidence collapses as inflation and housing kill demand Meanwhile, Consumer sentiment in Canada just hit a new all-time low. In the U.S., consumer confidence is bad too—but Americans are still three times more optimistic than they were in 2008. In Canada, it’s 15 points below where it was during that global meltdown. It’s a record low. And it’s dragging everything else down with it. The economic chaos is starting to flip Canadian politics upside down. On February 16, the Liberal Party had about a 1% chance of winning the most seats in Parliament. That’s not an exaggeration. But now? They’ve got an 89% chance of taking the lead. That’s one of the biggest electoral reversals ever seen. Just two months ago, the Liberals were projected to grab 35 seats. The Conservatives were on track to grab 236. Now, the numbers show the Liberals with 178, and the Conservatives with just 131. A total reversal. Blame the economy. The trade war is ripping into what little confidence was left. Tariffs are brutal for Canada, and everyone knows it. Imports from Canada only make up 14% of what the U.S. buys. But on the flip side, the…

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Filed under: News - @ March 23, 2025 5:25 am