The post Is Strategy’s MSTR signaling Bitcoin’s next move? The data says… appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Strategy (MSTR) remains a key proxy for Bitcoin’s price behavior in the current market. That link stems from Strategy’s Digital Asset Treasury, which held more than 41,000 Bitcoin as part of a long-term accumulation plan. Both assets traded lower as sentiment stayed bearish. MSTR fell roughly 65% from its $543 peak, while BTC dropped about 37% from $126,000. Their correlation remained elevated at 0.95, reinforcing how closely MSTR continues to track Bitcoin’s direction. Fractal patterns point to more downside A bearish fractal forming on MSTR pointed to additional downside risk for both assets. The structure mirrored MSTR’s 2021–2023 cycle, when the stock entered a prolonged decline marked by lower highs and lower lows. That phase lasted 689 days and saw about $3.34 billion in traded volume. Source: Alphractal The current pattern began in late 2024 and could extend roughly 685 days, with projected volume near $5.09 billion, according to Joao Wedson. Selling pressure appeared to accelerate after Strategy’s directors sold shares near the November 2024 peak. Wedson estimated that MSTR could retrace toward $70–$80 from around $145 at the time of analysis. “I estimate a fair price around $70–$80 per share, as each bear market cycle tends to produce smaller drawdowns,” Wedson said. A move to $70 would represent roughly a 50% decline from current levels. Based on historical correlation, that scenario could pull Bitcoin [BTC] toward the $58,000 region, with deeper projections remaining less probable. Bitcoin’s recovery remains uncertain Bitcoin’s broader recovery remained uncertain when viewed through holder-based Realized Price signals. Source: Alphractal Historically, bull markets began when the Short-Term Holder Realized Price crossed above the Long-Term Holder Realized Price. Bear markets, by contrast, ended once Long-Term Holder Realized Price moved above short-term levels. The charts showed a persistent gap between short- and long-term holder prices, marked by the…

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Filed under: News - @ February 4, 2026 12:18 am