Japan’s $7 trillion JGB crash pushes yields higher and spooks global markets
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Japan’s bond market just exploded. A selloff in its massive $7.3 trillion government bond market wiped out $41 billion in a single session and wrecked whatever calm investors thought Japan still offered. The yield on the 30-year bond spiked over a quarter percentage point in one day. That’s not normal. Pramol Dhawan at Pacific Investment Management said, “A quarter-point surge in yields in a single session. Let that sink in.” This is the same market that used to take weeks to move by a couple basis points. For years, Japan was where investors went for low rates and funding. Now it’s the source of chaos. Inflation has stuck. Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae is doubling down on spending. Bond traders are now staring at yields over 4% on long-term debt, and they’re not ready for what’s coming. Takaichi’s stimulus and election plan sends bonds into chaos Takaichi called a snap election for February 8. She and her rivals are both pushing looser spending. That’s only made things worse. Tuesday’s crash was brutal. The 40-year yield hit 4% for the first time ever. The 30-year jumped eight times more than its usual daily range. This isn’t a normal correction. Masayuki Koguchi from Mitsubishi UFJ said, “I don’t think Japan’s yields have gone far enough yet. This is just the beginning. There’s a chance that bigger shocks will happen.” It’s been building for a while. The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates back in March 2024. Since then, the JGB market has had nine separate days where losses were more than double the average. The currency’s been a mess too. When Kazuo Ueda at the central bank said they might buy bonds again, long-term debt started to bounce back. But the yen crashed. Then it flipped again. Rumors of government intervention started…
Filed under: News - @ January 26, 2026 1:10 am