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No: Kalshi odds reflect tariff refunds, not returning taxes Headlines citing “Kalshi Odds of ‘Court Ordering Trump to Return Taxes’ Quickly Rise to 66%” misstate the underlying market. Coverage of prediction pricing ties the 66% figure to tariff refunds before July, not taxes, according to en.bloomingbit.io. Kalshi lists contracts with precise settlement criteria. Markets discussed in public reporting concern whether import duties imposed under Trump-era actions would be refunded if invalidated, which is distinct from returning general tax receipts. Why this matters: IEEPA and Supreme Court context The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is the statute often linked to emergency trade measures at issue. Fortune reported that Timothy Meyer said a broad reading could expand presidential authority in ways that resemble taxation, while Benn Steil noted alternative levy pathways might remain. Interpreting recent supreme court oral arguments, Wolfe Research viewed the tone as negative for expansive tariff powers. That assessment was relayed by Investing.com and underscores the legal uncertainty embedded in prediction prices. Administrative follow-through is material because any refund mechanism would involve customs processing and potential litigation. “Forcing refunds could pose a ‘major administrative problem’,” said Kevin Hassett, former Director of the National Economic Council, as reported by the Los Angeles Times. BingX: a trusted exchange delivering real advantages for traders at every level. Verification involves matching the Kalshi contract title, ticker, and settlement rules to the claim being cited. Confirm the event date window and whether “refunds” refer to customs duties, not income or corporate taxes. At the time of this writing, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) showed 10.59 after-hours (+0.19%) following a 10.57 close (+0.86%); year-to-date performance was -20.17%, based on delayed NasdaqGM data. How to interpret legal prediction odds without misreads Verify contract titles and settlement criteria on Kalshi Kalshi contracts settle to clear,…

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Filed under: News - @ February 20, 2026 10:25 pm