Whale-linked deposits and weak user activity point to sustained bearish pressure on Lido DAO.
Technical rejection at $1.20 and declining derivatives metrics support short-term downside risk.

A wallet linked to DeFiance Capital deposited 9.3 million LDO, worth about $10.1 million, into major exchanges.

These include Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Gate.io within the last 48 hours. Such large-scale inflows often signal planned sell-offs, especially during price drops. 

At the time of writing, Lido DAO [LDO] saw a sharp 10.37% drop in the past 24 hours, falling to $1.01. This drop, paired with exchange movement, has raised concerns over further downside pressure in the short term.

Trouble for LDO’s price stability

Lido DAO showed weakening engagement across its network. Daily Active Addresses hover at 139, while transaction count has slipped to 72. 

This trend suggests fewer users are interacting with the protocol. Consequently, falling user metrics typically lead to reduced organic demand. 

Moreover, network inactivity often correlates with price stagnation or correction. When large holders move tokens to exchanges amid weak participation, the result tends to be negative.

Moreover, Price DAA Divergence stood at -6.55%, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

The value meant that the recent price action lacked user-driven strength. In most cases, price increases that outpace user growth do not last. 

Therefore, this gap points to an unstable rally. When the price climbs without support from users, the risk of correction increases sharply. Unless participation rises, price will likely retreat again.

Market metrics reflect caution as buyers hesitate

LDO’s MVRV Z-Score hovered around -0.133, suggesting mild undervaluation. This score means holders are near breakeven. However, the signal lacks strong accumulation pressure. 

In previous cycles, deeper MVRV lows often triggered significant rebounds. That’s not the case here. Buyers appear hesitant. The level is neutral and does not hint at a reversal.

Therefore, LDO remains vulnerable.

For recovery to build, the market needs stronger signals of undervaluation. As of now, the incentive to buy remains weak.

Derivatives metrics reflect growing caution.

In fact, trading volume has dropped 24.22%, falling to $172.36 million. Additionally, Open Interest has declined 9.79% to $129.93 million. These steep reductions show traders are closing positions and avoiding new ones. 

This behavior limits volatility and dampens upward momentum. Without leverage support, price action becomes sluggish. Moreover, falling derivatives activity often follows bearish price moves.

Will LDO survive the sell pressure or break lower?

LDO failed to break resistance at $1.20. The price now trades just above key support at $0.90. If this support breaks, the next targets lie near $0.74 and $0.57. 

RSI stands at 41.80, suggesting weakening strength. Momentum remains soft and shows no clear bullish reversal. 

Therefore, the price may dip further in the coming days. Unless $0.90 holds firmly, sellers could take control.

Over the next 5–7 days, LDO may test $0.74 if bearish pressure increases.

Ultimately, Lido DAO faces intensifying short-term downside risks, driven by large exchange deposits and fading on-chain activity.

The drop in daily user engagement, combined with bearish divergence and neutral MVRV levels, reflects weakening conviction among investors.

Additionally, derivatives markets show declining volume and Open Interest, reinforcing the risk-off tone.

Unless LDO reclaims momentum above $1.02 and defends the $0.90 support level, further retracement toward $0.74 remains likely in the coming week.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ May 16, 2025 1:00 am