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Oil prices crashed on Monday after markets reacted to Iran’s latest missile attacks by betting the country won’t mess with energy infrastructure. Brent fell almost 6%, landing at $71.11 per barrel, just hours after hitting $81.40. West Texas Intermediate followed the same path, dropping under $70 and wiping out gains made over the last 10 days. That spike had started when Israel launched a surprise strike on Iranian nuclear and air defense sites eleven days ago, triggering fears of direct retaliation from Tehran. Iran fired missiles at Al Udeid air base in Qatar, where 10,000 U.S. troops are based. The government in Doha said it blocked the strikes. Another wave of missiles targeted U.S. military positions in Iraq. But what mattered most to traders was what Iran didn’t do: they didn’t touch oil pipelines, tankers, or refineries. And that’s why prices nosedived. According to reporting by the Financial Times, the strikes were seen as a move to respond without risking escalation around energy assets. Iran copies 2020 playbook Michael Alfaro, chief investment officer at Gallo Partners, called Iran’s move “well telegraphed” and said it sent a clear signal that the country is “less likely to weaponize oil.” He said the broader market still looks supplied, and even if tension stays high, that doesn’t mean supply gets tight. Rory Johnston, who tracks the oil market at Commodity Context, said what happened reminded him of January 2020, when Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq after Washington killed its top general. That time, like now, Iran gave advance notice through indirect channels so that the U.S. could move troops out of harm’s way. Rory said Monday’s oil sell-off looked like a direct response to a similar “de-escalatory” signal. Despite loud calls from some Iranian hardliners to shut down the Strait of…

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Filed under: News - @ June 23, 2025 7:20 pm