The post Polymarket Bets 27% Chance Of $85K Drop As Shorts Get Squeezed appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin holds at $89,463 as price compresses between the 20-day EMA at $91,241 and the ascending channel support near $88,000. Polymarket prediction odds show 27% chance BTC hits $85,000 before month end, while only 4% odds exist for a rally to $100,000. Short liquidations dominate at $85.33 million over 24 hours, suggesting bearish positioning may be getting crowded. Bitcoin price today trades near $89,463 as the market consolidates within a narrowing range. Prediction markets reflect elevated downside expectations, but derivatives data shows shorts getting squeezed, creating a potential setup for a counter-trend move. Polymarket Bets On Downside Prediction markets reveal bearish positioning among traders. Polymarket data shows a 27% probability that BTC drops to $85,000 before January ends, down from 44% earlier this week. The market for a decline to $80,000 sits at 6%, while $75,000 carries just 2% odds. On the upside, only 4% of bettors expect BTC to reclaim $100,000 this month, with the odds for $105,000 and above falling below 2%. The asymmetric probability distribution reflects the current sentiment where downside risks dominate expectations. However, prediction market odds have shifted notably in recent days. The $85,000 probability dropped from 44% to 27%, suggesting that bearish conviction is fading even as price remains below key resistance levels. Shorts Get Squeezed Despite Bearish Sentiment Derivatives data tells a different story from prediction markets. Over the past 24 hours, $85.33 million in short positions were liquidated compared to just $20.38 million in longs. The 4:1 ratio suggests that bearish positioning has become crowded. Open interest dipped 1.02% to $58.87 billion while trading volume rose 3.78% to $58.75 billion. Options volume surged 18.15% to $2.87 billion, indicating that traders are paying for volatility protection as the range tightens. The long/short ratio sits at 0.99, nearly perfectly balanced. Top traders on Binance…

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Filed under: News - @ January 25, 2026 5:29 pm