TL;DR

Kamala Harris leads Polymarket odds with 52% to win the presidency.
Donald Trump is in second place with a 45% chance.
Michelle Obama has just a 1% chance, according to the latest betting odds.

The US presidential race has taken an unexpected turn in recent weeks, with Kamala Harris emerging as the front-runner in Polymarket‘s predictions market.

Harris currently has a 52% chance of winning the presidency, backed by a significant $61,223,367 bet.

This rise is particularly notable given that, in June 2024, his probability of victory was only 1% before Joe Biden’s withdrawal.

Harris’s shift in odds is a reflection of her growing support and the effectiveness of her campaign, which has been strengthened by the recent selection of Tim Walz as her running mate.

This momentum has allowed Harris to overtake Donald Trump, who currently sits in second place with a 45% chance and a total bet of $72,394,572.

Trump‘s falling odds can be attributed to several factors, including a decline in the price of Bitcoin and his association with the cryptocurrency, which had initially raised his odds.

The total amount staked on the Polymarket exchange is impressive, reaching $575,740,263, underscoring the huge interest and speculation surrounding this election.

Despite the resources and attention Trump has mobilized, his slide in the odds and loss of ground on other betting platforms suggest his campaign faces significant challenges.

Impact of Elon Musk’s Interview on Polymarket’s numbers

The campaign dynamic is further intensified by the recent confirmation of a live interview between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, scheduled for August 12 at 8 PM ET.

This interview promises to capture public attention and could influence voter perception in the days leading up to the election.

The relevance of the interview underscores how media events and campaign strategies can impact the odds and the mood of the electorate.

On the other hand, Michelle Obama, although mentioned in the betting market, has only a 1% chance of winning.

This reflects her position as a less likely candidate in the current race, despite her considerable popularity and potential support.

The presidential race is shaping up to be highly competitive and dynamic, with Kamala Harris seizing a momentum advantage and Donald Trump facing challenges.

The evolution of probabilities and recent events offer a fascinating insight into the intensity of this election campaign and the impact of each development on the road to November 4, 2024.

Uncertainty and interest surrounding this election continue to grow, highlighting the importance of each move in the final stretch of the campaign.

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Filed under: News - @ August 12, 2024 4:24 pm