The post Polymarket racks up $50M bets as tensions rage on appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

It took Polymarket less than 24 hours to turn a Middle Eastern war into a trading floor. Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran Saturday, the prediction market has seen a flood of new contracts covering everything from ceasefire timelines to whether the Iranian regime will collapse by June. The speed and specificity of the markets is striking. Bettors aren’t just wagering on whether the conflict escalates, but pricing the week it ends, who replaces Khamenei, and whether U.S. ground forces enter Iran by March 7. Polymarket’s largest completed market is “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” which resolved to 100% after Iranian state TV confirmed his death. The contract pulled $45 million in volume, making it one of the most-traded geopolitical markets in the platform’s history. The top trader, an account called ‘Curseaaaaaaa,’ made $757,000 on a Yes bet. Four other traders each cleared six figures. The chart on that market hovered between 25% and 50% through January and February as tensions built, then spiked vertically to 100% when confirmation came through. Now the action has shifted to what comes next. The ceasefire market gives just a 4% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 2 and 15% by March 6, but jumps to 61% by March 31 and 78% by April 30. Bettors are pricing a resolution within weeks, not months, consistent with bitcoin’s bounce to $68,000 on the same thesis. “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” sits at 54%, up sharply from the low-20s where it had traded for months. The “Next Supreme Leader of Iran” market gives a 30% chance to “position abolished” entirely, meaning bettors see nearly a one-in-three shot that the theocratic structure itself doesn’t survive. Ali Larijani, a former parliament speaker, leads the named candidates…

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Filed under: News - @ March 1, 2026 4:22 am