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Welcome to our institutional newsletter, Crypto Long & Short. This week: Ryan Kirkley on how crypto prediction markets can risk incentivizing manipulation and amplify misinformation at scale. Top headlines institutions should pay attention to by Francisco Rodrigues. Geodnet decoupling suggests fundamental re-rating in Chart of the Week. Thanks for joining us! -Alexandra Levis Expert Insights Prediction Markets Don’t Just Forecast Power – They Reshape It By Ryan Kirkley, Co-Founder and CEO of Global Settlement Network Prediction markets are often pitched as neutral forecasting tools: efficient ways to aggregate information and convert collective belief into a price. That case is not entirely wrong. The academic literature has long found that prediction markets can produce forecasts that outperform many conventional benchmarks. But as someone who believes in crypto’s role in modernizing market infrastructure, I think we should be honest about what the sector is building here. The crypto version of prediction markets is no longer just about forecasting. It is about financializing real-world instability. That distinction matters. On Polymarket, for example, users can bridge assets from Ethereum, Solana, Bitcoin and other chains; those deposits are converted into USDC.e on Polygon, where fully backed yes/no positions trade and settle on-chain as tokenized claims. In other words, crypto does not merely host these markets. It gives them global reach, cross-chain funding and low-friction settlement. That is impressive market design. It is also exactly what makes the social risk larger. Once you turn war, political violence, public disorder or institutional breakdown into tradable crypto instruments, you create new incentives for bad actors. The first is obvious: people with privileged information can try to monetize it. U.S. regulators have long recognized that not every event belongs inside a financial market. CFTC Regulation 40.11 bars event contracts involving terrorism, assassination and war, among other categories deemed contrary…

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Filed under: News - @ March 26, 2026 1:29 am