Quantum Computers Need Millions More Qubits to Break Bitcoin, CoinShares Reports
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TLDR: Breaking Bitcoin encryption requires quantum computers 100,000 times more powerful than today’s technology Only 10,200 BTC in legacy addresses could cause market disruption if suddenly compromised by quantum attack Cryptographically relevant quantum computers unlikely to emerge before 2030s, according to CoinShares analysis Bitcoin can adopt post-quantum signatures through soft forks while maintaining defensive adaptability Quantum computing poses no immediate threat to Bitcoin’s security infrastructure, according to digital asset manager CoinShares. The firm’s latest analysis dismisses concerns about near-term vulnerabilities in the cryptocurrency’s cryptographic foundation. Current quantum technology remains decades away from breaking Bitcoin’s encryption protocols. CoinShares estimates only 1.7 million BTC faces potential exposure, representing 8% of total supply. The research suggests institutional investors should view quantum risks as manageable engineering considerations rather than existential crises. Technology Requires Decades Before Becoming Cryptographically Relevant CoinShares’ analysis reveals breaking Bitcoin’s secp256k1 encryption demands quantum systems with millions of logical qubits. Current quantum computers operate at approximately 105 qubits, falling dramatically short of required thresholds. Source: CoinShares Researchers estimate attackers would need machines 100,000 times more powerful than today’s largest quantum systems. Reversing a public key within one day requires 13 million physical qubits and fault tolerance levels not yet achieved. Breaking encryption within one hour would demand quantum computers 3 million times more advanced than current capabilities. Each additional qubit makes maintaining system coherence exponentially more difficult, according to technical experts. Cybersecurity firm Ledger’s Chief Technology Officer Charles Guillemet provided expert perspective on the technical challenges facing quantum development. Speaking to CoinShares, Guillemet emphasized the massive scale required for cryptographic attacks. “To break current asymmetric cryptography, one would need something in the order of millions of qubits. Willow, Google’s current computer, is 105 qubits. And as soon as you add one more qubit, it becomes exponentially more difficult to maintain…
Filed under: News - @ February 8, 2026 10:09 pm