The executive now assigns a 90% probability that the bill will be signed by the end of April 2026, a notably stronger stance than most prediction markets.

The legislation, formally titled H.R. 3633, is designed to end years of regulatory confusion in the U.S. digital asset sector. After clearing the House with bipartisan backing in mid-2025, it advanced through the Senate Agriculture Committee earlier this year. The focus has now shifted to final negotiations in Washington.

White House Deadline Puts Pressure on Talks

A March 1 deadline set by the White House has become the central pressure point in negotiations. Closed-door meetings on February 19 between administration officials, crypto leaders and major banking trade groups were described as constructive, but no final agreement emerged.

The primary sticking point is stablecoin yield. The administration is reportedly drawing a firm line against allowing interest-like rewards on idle stablecoin balances, arguing that such incentives could trigger large-scale deposit migration away from traditional banks. Banking groups warn that up to $500 billion in deposits could leave the system by 2028 if stablecoins offer competitive returns.

Negotiators are now exploring activity-based reward models tied to transactions rather than passive balances. Even so, major banks remain cautious, citing potential capital and funding pressures.

Legislative Window Is Narrow

If negotiators reach a compromise before the March 1 cutoff, Senate leadership is expected to schedule floor debate this spring. Treasury officials have also stressed that the pre-midterm window is limited, increasing urgency around a swift resolution.

Failure to secure agreement by the deadline could derail the bill for the current session, effectively restarting the legislative process.

Garlinghouse’s 90% confidence level exceeds current prediction market estimates, which place the probability of passage this year closer to the high-70% to low-80% range. His optimism reflects renewed coordination between crypto firms, Wall Street institutions and federal policymakers.

Impact on XRP and Institutional Adoption

At the heart of the bill is a clear framework defining which digital assets fall under the oversight of the CFTC versus the SEC. For Ripple, the stakes are substantial. A commodity classification for its associated token would significantly reduce compliance friction for U.S. banks and institutional partners.

Analysts suggest that federal clarity could unlock broader integration with the American banking system. Some market forecasts point to mid-single-digit price targets under a regulated framework, while more aggressive projections extend far higher, contingent on institutional adoption.

Ripple has already positioned itself for this potential shift, spending close to $3 billion on acquisitions since 2023. According to Garlinghouse, major dealmaking will temporarily slow as the company focuses on integrating those purchases ahead of a possible regulatory breakthrough.

With just days before the White House deadline, the CLARITY Act now stands at a decisive crossroads – one that could reshape the U.S. crypto landscape for years to come.



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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ February 22, 2026 5:49 am