Ripple (XRP), famous for its aggressive rallies, has been drawing a lot of attention lately as its legal fog clears and US crypto regulations appear to be moving in its favor. That said, despite its impressive run up from $0.50 last November, to $3.27 in January, after it slid under $3.00 on February the first, it has been able to pass that resistance level again.  As a result, most traders are asking the same question: Could we see another explosive rally any time soon?

To answer this, we analyze some key indicators: funding rates, premium index, seasonality index, and structure. These indicators provide crucial insights into market dynamics. Let’s dive into the data and see what these indicators reveal about XRP’s potential price action for the rest of July and into August.

Ripple Funding Rates

Funding rates are a great way to understand how the market is feeling. When funding rates are very high, it usually means many traders are betting on the price going up (going long). This can be a warning sign. If too many people are already long, it might be risky to open a new long position because the price could be near a top.

Let’s look at the XRP chart. In the past, we’ve seen that XRP often goes through long periods of sideways movement (First green box) while funding stays low or even negative. This is a buildup phase. After that, XRP starts to rally, more traders jump in, and funding rates rise sharply (Red box), often right before the price tops out.

Right now, the data shows we’re still in the accumulation phase. Funding is low or neutral, and the price is moving sideways. This suggests the big move hasn’t started yet, but the price is already slowly grinding upwards.

XRP Premium Index

Now let’s take a look at the premium index. This index shows whether traders are paying more for the asset on the spot market or on the futures market. It’s a useful tool to understand if people are accumulating on spot or if there’s a lot of speculation in futures.

When the premium index turns green (positive), it means the price on the futures market is higher than the spot price. When it turns red (negative), it means the spot price is higher than the futures price.

For healthy market conditions, you usually want to see the spot price higher, which gives a negative premium index. This suggests real demand. On the other hand, when the premium index is too high, it means there’s a lot of speculation in futures, and often the market is getting closer to a top.

What we can see in the chart with XRP is that we have already, for a prolonged time, a negative premium index, which means that most action is happening on the spot market (accumulation), and that is a healthy sign. It shows a similar signal as the funding rates, that market conditions are healthy, and that we’re building up momentum for another rally.

ISO20022 Tokens

XRP belongs to the ISO20022 sector, just like XLM, HBAR, XDC, and many more. Tokens in this sector comply with the ISO 20022 standard, a global framework for financial messaging. This standard is widely used in traditional banking and payments (like SWIFT) to ensure interoperability, security, and efficiency in transactions.  This sector has completely outperformed the whole crypto market in late 2024, as you can see in the ISO20022 Season Index below.

This index measures the strength of ISO 20022 tokens compared to Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. For a while, it hovered between 0 and 15, but recently it spiked to 30, likely driven by strong gains in Stellar (XLM).

This spike could be an early signal that ISO 20022 tokens are starting to attract attention again, and it may suggest that XRP could soon follow with renewed momentum.

XRP Price Structure

After XRP’s big rally in late 2024, where the price jumped from 50 cents to around 3 dollars, the market has been in a period of consolidation. The most recent correction wasn’t been very deep, which leaves many traders wondering what’s going on. XRP is known for sharp and explosive moves, but also for strong pullbacks afterward. This time, the drop has been more shallow than usual – a higher low.

The current chart structure looks quite bullish. There is a declining channel, also known as a bull flag, and the price is now trading above the resistance. A first higher low has already formed, which shows the potential start of a new uptrend. The last key step to confirm the uptrend is a break above $3.00

Conclusion: Is XRP Ready for the Next Big Move?

All signs suggest that XRP is quietly gaining strength. Funding rates remain low, the premium index shows healthy spot market accumulation, and the ISO 20022 sector is starting to attract attention again, with coins like XLM leading the way. On top of that, XRP’s chart structure looks bullish, with a breakout from a declining channel and a clear higher low already in place.

 

XRP has already successfully broken above its key resistance at $2.66 and is pushing towards $3.00, after which price could enter a phase of discovery and reach new highs (its previous all time high was $3.84 in January 2018).

While nothing is ever certain in crypto, the current data indicates that XRP may be preparing for another strong move in July or August. It’s a moment worth watching closely, especially for those looking to catch the next rally.

 

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ July 12, 2025 9:20 am