Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows dropped over 90% from $3 billion to $228 million in four weeks.

While strong ETF inflows often drive Bitcoin rallies, recent data shows price movements can occur independently.

Despite short-term selling pressure, long-term BTC whale buying suggests a potential continuation of the BTC uptrend.

The Bitcoin (BTC) market posted a 90+% drop in spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, falling from $3 billion in the last week of April to just $228 million this week.

Historically, a slowdown in ETF inflows has impacted BTC price, notably when daily inflows averaged over $1.5 billion for consecutive weeks. To understand the potential impact on Bitcoin, let’s examine four key periods of significant spot ETF activity and their correlation with BTC price movements.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ net inflows. Source: SoSoValue

In Q1 2024, from Feb. 2 to March 15, the spot ETFs recorded $11.39 billion in net inflows over seven weeks, driving a 57% price surge. Although BTC prices peaked in week five, as $4.8 billion inflows in the final two weeks did not push its value higher.

Bitcoin 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Similarly, Q3 2024 saw $16.8 billion in inflows over nine weeks from Oct. 18 to Dec. 13, fueling a 66% rally. However, when inflows slowed in the 10th week, Bitcoin’s price dropped 9%, reinforcing the link between ETF flows and price corrections. 

In Q1 2025, $3.8 billion in inflows over two weeks (Jan. 17–24) coincided with a new all-time high of $110,000 on Jan. 20, but overall prices fell 4.8%.  

Most recently, Q2 2025 (April 25–May 9) saw $5.8 billion in inflows and a 22% price rally, though Bitcoin had already gained 8% in the prior two weeks despite negative netflows.

Bitcoin price and spot ETFs correlation. Data source: SoSoValue, Cointelegraph

This data challenges the notion that spot ETF inflows consistently drive prices. While Q3 2024 and Q2 2025 suggest strong inflows fuel rallies, Q1 2024 and Q1 2025 show prices can stagnate or fall despite significant inflows. The Q2 2025 rally, partially independent of spot ETF activity, hints at other drivers like easing US tariffs, retail interest or Bitcoin whale accumulation.

With inflows now at $228 million, the historical trend leans bearish, suggesting a potential correction. However, a counterargument emerges from recent whale activity, which paints a more bullish picture.

Related: 6 signs predicting $140K as Bitcoin’s next price top

Bitcoin faces selling pressure, but whales may retain the trend

Bitcoin exhibits short-term selling pressure as the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta turns negative, according to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson. The chart shows that whales are starting to offload BTC between $105,000 and $100,000, a level flagged as risky by Wedson. This bearish shift, with a negative cumulative volume delta, indicates selling pressure in the short term.

Bitcoin Buy/Sell Pressure Delta. Source: X.com

Yet, long-term buying pressure remains strong, suggesting this dip is a correction, not a reversal. Data from CryptoQuant highlights that whales are taking relatively fewer profits in the current period than in previous price peaks. Anonymous analyst Blitzz Trading noted,

“Compared to previous rallies, we can see that whales have taken significantly less profit during this recent surge. This could indicate that the upward trend may continue. This chart should be monitored closely.”Bitcoin Whales. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: Bitcoin bulls aim for new all-time highs by next week as capital inflows soar

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ May 15, 2025 4:14 pm