Strategy could own over 1 million BTC by 2033 – Bernstein
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Bernstein believes Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, could amass more than 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) by 2033 in a bullish market cycle, Benzinga reported on March 26, citing a research note. The projection issued by Bernstein analysts, outlines two vastly different paths for the company depending on macroeconomic conditions and Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory. Bull vs. bear scenario In the optimistic scenario, Strategy would expand its holdings from the current 506,137 BTC to 1,013,000 BTC — approximately 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply — assuming Bitcoin climbs to $200,000 by late 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and hits $1 million by 2033. To fund that level of accumulation, Strategy would likely rely on continued access to capital markets, potentially increasing its total debt tenfold to $100 billion while raising $84 billion in equity. The analysts emphasized that this trajectory hinges on low interest rates and strong investor demand. In contrast, the bear case suggests a more constrained future. If Bitcoin reaches a local peak in 2025 and then enters a prolonged downturn, Strategy’s BTC holdings may level off near 514,800 BTC — just 2.6% of supply. This would force the firm to halt further acquisitions and possibly liquidate part of its treasury to manage debt and dividends. Under this base-case model, debt would rise to $51 billion. Outperform rating maintained Despite the risk, Bernstein reaffirmed an “outperform” rating on Strategy and set a $600 price target — representing a 75% upside from current levels The firm’s valuation model applies a 2x EV/sales multiple on the software segment and a 55% premium on its Bitcoin reserves, a figure in line with its average market premium since pivoting to BTC. Strategy’s latest purchase — 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million between March 17 and March 23 — further entrenched its commitment to Bitcoin, lifting…
Filed under: News - @ March 26, 2025 8:22 pm