Yep, thanks to the emergence of U.S. regulated Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the Bitcoin market is becoming, dare we say, predictable. Askew summed it up bluntly: “The days of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over.” Instead, he predicts BTC will now chug along on a slow grind toward $1 million, powered by a cycle of pumps and consolidations so steady it’ll bore retail tourists right out of their trades.

BTC is going to $1,000,000 over the next 10 years through a consistent oscillation between “pump” and “consolidate”, source: X

Askew even backed it up with charts showing a sharp drop in volatility since the U.S. greenlit spot Bitcoin ETFs back in January 2024. Think fewer face-melting rallies, fewer catastrophic crashes, and a whole lot more sideways boredom.

Welcome to the TradFi-ification of Bitcoin

What’s really happening is Bitcoin is getting domesticated. Once the wild stallion of financial assets, it’s now being saddled by BlackRock, Fidelity, and a roster of TradFi big dogs who’ve figured out how to make Bitcoin palatable to pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and soccer dads.

Bloomberg ETF guru Eric Balchunas agrees. In his view, less volatility is a feature, not a bug. “It helps Bitcoin attract even bigger fish,” he said, adding that it gives BTC a “fighting chance to be adopted as currency.” But there’s a catch: the cost of maturity might be the death of the so-called “God Candle”, those one-day, vertical green spikes that used to blow minds and melt faces.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate under $120,000, Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index

The ETF Effect: Calm Seas, But at What Cost?

This isn’t just about vibes. The mechanics are changing. Bitcoin ETFs are absorbing capital into traditional wrappers that don’t live on-chain and don’t offer in-kind redemption. That means fewer actual Bitcoins moving on the network and more paper BTC sitting in custodial vaults, far from the decentralized ideals the crypto world used to chant about.

In fact, BlackRock alone now controls about 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply through its ETF product. To decentralization maxis, that’s a red flag. But to Wall Street? It’s just Tuesday.

And while ETF inflows have been massive, over $50 billion and counting, on-chain activity hasn’t budged. Why? Because retail isn’t stacking sats anymore; they’re buying tickers. They’re getting exposure through retirement accounts and brokerage apps, not cold wallets and seed phrases. Bitcoin, in essence, is becoming just another line item in a portfolio.

Altcoin Season? Don’t Hold Your Breath

There’s another consequence no one’s talking about: altcoins may be the real victims here. In previous cycles, Bitcoin gains would eventually rotate into ETH, Solana, memecoins, and whatever was trending that cycle. But with ETFs hoarding capital in vaults, the rotation into altcoins just doesn’t happen.

Capital is getting locked up in compliant, KYC’d vehicles, and it’s not coming out to play. So, is this the end of crypto as we know it? Not exactly. But it is the end of crypto as it was. Bitcoin is no longer the anarchic asset for renegades and cyberpunks. It’s becoming a mature, yield-less treasury reserve for institutions, less punk, more pension fund.

For some, that’s a tragedy. For others, it’s the dream finally realized: global legitimacy. We’ll just have to learn how to get excited about 12% annual gains and argue over ETF fee structures. Buckle up for a long, boring climb to $1 million. 

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ July 26, 2025 11:14 pm