The post The Q4 outlook – Blockworks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Today, enjoy the On the Margin newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter. (Attempting to) answer the Q4 Qs  We’ve just about made it to the final quarter of 2024. With the rate-cutting cycle underway, the election looming and geopolitical tensions rising, there’s a lot to keep an eye on these next three months.  Here’s an overview of where economic forecasts currently stand and what we can learn from historical data: Recessionary fears are still present, but generally not increasing  Analysts from S&P Global are keeping their probability for a recession beginning in the next 12 months unchanged at 25%.  “For now, near-term recession fears appear overblown,” they wrote, adding that the recent increase in unemployment is largely due to labor force expansion rather than layoffs, which would be more indicative of a looming recession.  Analysts from Russell Investments mostly agree, adding that declining inflation, modest wage growth and cooling labor market pressures all bode well for avoiding a recession. They say the most important figure to watch will be weekly initial jobless claims. Should first-time claims continuously come in above 260,000, a “more painful” adjustment would likely follow. Initial claims came in at 218,000 for the week ended Sept. 21, a 4,000 decrease from the week prior. The four-week moving average currently sits at 224,750.  A 90s-style soft landing  90s fashion is back — according to Gen Z at least — so let’s hope the economic conditions that allowed for a soft landing in 1994/1995 are also making a comeback.  The Fed’s 1994 rate-raising cycle saw rates go from 3% to 6% over seven increases. The central bank cut rates by 75-basis points the following year and held them there for over a year. Economic growth did slow,…

---

Filed under: News - @ September 30, 2024 8:19 pm