The post This Trader Lost $2 Million on Polymarket: 5 Mistakes to Avoid appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

A trader has lost more than $2 million on Polymarket in just over a month, with a single position accounting for nearly 79% of the total loss. As prediction markets gain traction across the crypto sector, more traders are shifting toward outcome-based platforms in search of new opportunities. However, this growing trend also raises concerns about whether participants fully understand the distinct risks associated with betting on real-world events, as opposed to price movements. Sponsored Sponsored How a 51% Win Rate Still Led to Massive Losses In a detailed thread on X (formerly Twitter), blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain highlighted a trader, beachboy4, whose losses on Polymarket exceed $2 million. The post outlined the trader’s activity and risk exposure over a 35-day period. According to the data, the trader placed 53 predictions during that time, recording 27 winning positions for a win rate of approximately 51%. Despite this, the overall performance was heavily impacted by several high-risk trades. Polymarket Trader’s Losses. Source: X/Lookonchain Lookonchain noted that the trader’s average bet size was around $400,000. The trader’s largest gain reached $935,800. Meanwhile, the biggest loss totaled $1.58 million, stemming from a single bet on Liverpool to win, purchased at a price of $0.66. “Buying ‘YES’ at $0.66 does not mean: ‘Liverpool is likely to win’ It means: ‘I believe the true probability is higher than 66%.’ Polymarket is a probability market, not a bookmaker. This trader consistently treated Polymarket like binary sports betting, not probability trading. This single mistake is enough to explain most of the losses,” Lookonchain stressed. The report further highlighted a recurring pattern in the trader’s losses, with entry prices across major losing positions clustered between $0.51 and $0.67. These trades typically offered a limited upside of 50% to 90%. Yet, they carried a potential downside of 100%. Lookonchain…

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Filed under: News - @ January 5, 2026 3:29 pm