The post Traders Flip Senate Control Bet as Democrats Overtake Republicans on Kalshi, Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

In brief Contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket now give Democrats a 51% chance of winning Senate control, edging Republicans at 49%. The shift marks a dramatic reversal from a year ago, when markets priced Democrats at just 18% probability of taking the chamber. Kalshi data shows Democrats’ odds have risen 11 percentage points since U.S. military involvement in Iran began about two weeks ago. Prediction markets have shifted to favor Democrats to control the U.S. Senate after the 2026 midterm election, marking the first time the party has taken the lead in the race’s history on platforms tracking the outcome. Contracts on prediction platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, show Democrats with a roughly 51% chance of winning Senate control, compared with 49% for Republicans, as of late Friday.  On Myriad Markets, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are pricing the chances of Democrats sweeping the 2026 midterms at about 50-50. “The Democratic Party is now favored to win the Senate for the first time in the race’s history,” said Jack Such, a Kalshi spokesperson, wrote to Decrypt. “The race is now essentially a coin flip, with Democrats having a 51% chance to win.”  The narrow lead represents a dramatic reversal from a year ago, when markets priced Democrats at just 18% probability. The shift reflects a steady repricing by traders over recent months that accelerated in the past few weeks amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. It also comes as a surprise because the Senate had long been expected to remain in Republican hands. While they are widely expected to face a difficult fight to hold the House after the midterms, the Senate map had been viewed as structurally favorable to President Donald Trump’s party. Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied…

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Filed under: News - @ March 16, 2026 3:17 am