The post Trump’s lead over Harris widens to 23% in prediction markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Two weeks and a day away from the upcoming U.S. presidential election, the odds of Donald Trump securing a second presidency have surged per major prediction market platforms.  Although traditional polling data suggests that the Republican candidate is gaining ground, particularly in key swing states, national polling still paints the picture of a close race. At the time of publication, Kamala Harris maintains a razor-thin 1.7% lead — according to the latest findings from FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s model. National poll averages as of October 21. Source: FiveThirtyEight Swing state polls show increased momentum for Trump’s campaign In the immediate aftermath of the presidential debate, prediction markets gave Harris and Trump equal odds of victory. By October 4, the Republican candidate had managed to etch out a 1% lead — just four days later, the lead had widened to 7%, then expanded to 19% by October 16. These increases coincided with the release of new polling data favorable to Trump’s campaign. Per Nate Silver’s latest update, the billionaire candidate has seen the tides turn in his favor in every single swing state on both a monthly and weekly basis. Whereas Harris’ lead in the key states of Wisconsin and Nevada are miniscule, at 0.3% and 0.6% respectively, Trump’s smallest margin, in North Carolina, is 0.8% — his next smallest margin, in Georgia, is twice as wide at 1.6%. Swing state poll averages as of October 21. Source: Nate Silver If this pace continues, Wisconsin, Michigan, as well as the national race would have Trump in the lead by the time Election Day comes around. Prediction markets weigh in on presidential race Prediction markets seem to have reacted in an outsized way compared to official data. While the news is certainly positive for former President Trump, his lead in prediction markets…

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Filed under: News - @ October 21, 2024 3:26 pm