US Election fever, are crypto traders are bracing for a wild ride?
The post US Election fever, are crypto traders are bracing for a wild ride? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
With the US November elections coming in, crypto is making headlines like never before. This year’s campaign marks the first time digital assets are a prominent policy issue. Back in 2020, BlackRock’s Larry Fink called Bitcoin an “index for money laundering,” and now he’s among its advocates, promoting Bitcoin’s benefits and Ethereum’s potential to investors. As election day nears, institutional trades on Deribit are flashing bullish positioning on crypto options. This signals an expected post-election gain. While derivatives and options data suggest short-term volatility, smart money sees the race’s outcome as a long-term crypto catalyst, keeping aside who the winner is. Are Polymarket’s betting odds fair? Bettors are flocking to Polymarket to wager on the next US president; questions arise about the platform’s efficiency. How reliable are its odds, especially for Donald Trump? The former President is leading the winning odds by holding the numbers at approx. 64% against Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, Polymarket isn’t available in the US, which suggests that the current odds don’t reflect the regions’ voter sentiment. A recent analysis found that a whale backing Trump is a French national. Market odds and polls serve different purposes. Polymarket odds aim for winner prediction, unlike polls that measure voter intent. This creates differing incentives, indicating that Polymarket users care less about margins. We just released the first part of our US election coverage 🇺🇸 In this Deep Dive we look at positioning in $BTC markets ahead of the election and how crypto has become a talking point for the first time. Check it out below 👇https://t.co/V1KRVHnEjw — Kaiko (@KaikoData) October 24, 2024 Since launching its presidential market in January, Polymarket has seen over $2 billion in trading volume, but open interest never exceeded $250 million. This liquidity issue raises questions about its predictive value. National polls tell a…
Filed under: News - @ October 25, 2024 6:19 am