After 40 days of political gridlock, the longest government shutdown in American history appears close to ending. The Senate voted 60-40 on November 9, 2025, to advance a bipartisan deal that would reopen the government through January.

The shutdown began on October 1 after Congress failed to pass funding legislation. Approximately 750,000 federal workers were furloughed, while another 650,000 deemed essential continued working without pay. Air travel collapsed, with more than 2,300 flights cancelled and 8,000 delayed as airport staff went unpaid. Food assistance programs serving 42 million Americans faced cuts.

Eight Democratic senators broke with their party leadership to advance the bill, which still needs House approval and President Trump’s signature. Trump told reporters the shutdown looks close to ending, though the final process could take several days.

Crypto Markets Rally on Shutdown News

Bitcoin jumped above $106,000 following the Senate vote, gaining over 4% in 24 hours. Ethereum surged 7% to reach $3,622, while XRP climbed nearly 10%. The total cryptocurrency market cap bounced 4.5% to $3.57 trillion.

The rally reflects relief that frozen government funds will soon flow back into markets. During the shutdown, the Treasury General Account swelled to over $850 billion, effectively removing that cash from circulation. This liquidity drain pulled Bitcoin down about 5% from earlier highs.

Analysts estimate $180 billion to $300 billion will re-enter the financial system when operations restart. This liquidity injection could fuel sustained price gains across crypto assets.

Historical Patterns Point to Significant Gains

Past shutdowns provide a roadmap for what might happen next. When the 2018-2019 shutdown ended on January 25, 2019, Bitcoin rallied 265% over the following five months, climbing from $3,550 to $13,000.

During that shutdown, Bitcoin initially fell about 20% before staging a powerful recovery. The pattern appears to be repeating, with BTC establishing higher lows and building volume around key support levels.

Crypto analyst SatochiTrader noted that Bitcoin is forming a rising channel with $105,000 as the first resistance target. If momentum holds, the next move could push toward $110,000 and beyond.

Stock markets also historically perform well after shutdowns end. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 13% in the 12 months following the previous 22 government closures since 1976.

SEC Operations and ETF Approvals Resume

The shutdown created major delays for cryptocurrency regulation. The Securities and Exchange Commission operated with just 10% of normal staff, focusing only on preventing fraud. All reviews of new crypto exchange-traded funds stopped completely.

Over 90 pending crypto ETF applications were frozen, including highly anticipated products for XRP, Solana, Litecoin, and other major cryptocurrencies. Several had approval deadlines in October that the SEC missed due to the closure.

Market prediction platform Polymarket shows 99% probability that an XRP ETF gets approved by year-end. Five spot XRP ETFs already appear on the DTCC clearing system, suggesting launches are imminent.

Financial expert Levi Rietveld predicted the “largest XRP rally ever” once approvals begin, with some analysts forecasting XRP could reach $4 to $8 on institutional demand.

Economic Impact and Federal Reserve Response

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown cost the economy $7 billion to $14 billion. GDP growth in the fourth quarter will likely drop by up to two percentage points.

The lack of economic data during the shutdown left investors and the Federal Reserve flying blind. Key reports on jobs, inflation, and consumer spending were not published, making it harder to predict Fed policy moves.

Rate cuts have historically boosted cryptocurrency prices by adding liquidity to markets. The CME FedWatch tool shows 67% probability of a December rate cut. Combined with the end of quantitative tightening, this could create ideal conditions for risk assets like crypto.

Treasury Secretary officials indicated the government will rapidly release pent-up spending once operations resume. Federal workers will receive back pay, contracts will restart, and normal cash flows will return to the economy.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin and Crypto

Bitcoin technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency is building a foundation for sustained gains. Trading volume around $103,000 to $106,000 has increased significantly, which often precedes broader rallies.

Analysts see Bitcoin reaching $112,000 in the near term, with some projecting $150,000 by year-end if liquidity conditions improve as expected. The key resistance levels to watch are $110,000 and $115,000, where significant sell orders are clustered.

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, said ending the shutdown would restore risk appetite and ease liquidity concerns. This should benefit both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

BitMEX analysts expect a “strong relief rally” when hundreds of billions in Treasury cash gets injected back into markets. They believe Bitcoin’s four-year cycle isn’t finished, despite some analysts predicting it was ending.

The correlation between Bitcoin and dollar liquidity remains near 0.85, one of the strongest relationships among all asset classes. When money starts flowing again, crypto typically leads the charge higher.

Stock markets are also positioned for gains, with the Nasdaq Composite jumping 1.4% and the S&P 500 rising 0.7% on Monday. Tech stocks led the rally, with AI companies like Nvidia rebounding strongly.

The Road Ahead: Opportunities and Risks

While the immediate outlook appears positive, several factors could affect the recovery. The funding deal only extends through January, meaning another potential shutdown looms in two months. Congress still needs to pass comprehensive spending bills.

Crypto market structure legislation remains stalled. The CLARITY Act and other bills that would provide regulatory certainty for digital assets got pushed aside during the shutdown drama. These may not pass until 2026.

The deal also lacks guaranteed extensions for healthcare subsidies that Democrats wanted, which could create political tensions. If negotiations break down again, markets could face renewed uncertainty.

Institutional investors who pulled back during the crisis are expected to return. Crypto exchanges reported strong trading volumes as the rally began, suggesting both retail and professional traders are jumping back in.

Liquidity Returns, Markets Rebound

The 40-day government shutdown tested market resilience, but the resolution brings welcome relief. Cryptocurrency and stock markets rallied sharply on news that hundreds of billions in frozen liquidity will soon flow back into the financial system.

Bitcoin’s 4% surge past $106,000 and Ethereum’s 7% jump show investor confidence returning. The resumption of SEC operations will unlock pending crypto ETF approvals, potentially bringing massive institutional inflows. Historical patterns suggest significant gains ahead, though political risks remain as the funding deal only runs through January.

For crypto investors, the next few weeks could define market direction for months to come. The combination of restored liquidity, regulatory progress, and institutional interest creates conditions for sustained growth—if Washington can maintain stability.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ November 11, 2025 12:10 am