US stocks disappoint markets with weak year-end performance. But the Santa Rally is still possible
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US stocks are limping toward the finish line, leaving investors questioning whether the traditional Santa Claus Rally will make its appearance. This year’s rally window—spanning the last five trading days of December and the first two of January—opened Tuesday. The S&P 500 ticked up by 1.1% on day one but quickly lost steam, dropping a slight 0.04% on Thursday. Futures for today point to another drop, with a projected 0.4% dip at the opening bell. Historically, the Santa Claus Rally has been a reliable boost for markets. Since 1950, it has delivered an average return of 1.3%, far outshining the typical seven-day gain of 0.3%. The phenomenon was first flagged in the 1970s by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Trader’s Almanac. According to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial, a bull run during this period usually signals stronger gains ahead, with the S&P 500 averaging a January return of 1.4% and an annual return of 10.4%. So far though, Santa seems stuck in traffic. AI leads, thematic ETFs crash, and Netflix stumbles Even if the rally doesn’t show up, the S&P 500 is set for its biggest gain over global markets since 1997. Thanks to booming artificial intelligence developments and optimism about the US economy, it’s been a year for the books—though not without turbulence. Thematic ETFs, which let investors target specific trends like cloud computing or renewable energy, have been bleeding money. About $6.5 billion flowed out of these funds in 2024, with the ARK Innovation ETF alone losing nearly $3 billion. AI was the year’s shiny new toy, and it sucked the oxygen out of the room. Some investors are already chasing the next big thing. QTUM, a quantum computing ETF that has been mostly ignored for six years, saw inflows of $260 million this month. Whether this theme…
Filed under: News - @ December 27, 2024 1:20 pm