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The US stock market opened lower on Thursday as the market digested the growing odds that the war with Iran will escalate rather than find an off-ramp. This was always the case, but investors were momentarily made optimistic by President Trump’s insistence earlier in the week that his negotiations would soon bring an end to the war, now in its fourth week. The bet this week was that the impending economic fallout from the war would make Trump perform another TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) reversal that would benefit stock prices. On Wednesday, Iran confirmed that no negotiations had taken place despite Trump’s statements and that it did not take the administration’s 15-point ceasefire deal seriously. Oil in the US rose nearly 4% to close in on $94 after sinking below $90 earlier in the week. The US Treasury curve saw yields rise from 12-month to 30-year tenures. Trump looks for ‘final blow’ in Iran war Despite Trump’s public search for an off-ramp in the Iran war, US media has focused on the US military moving thousands of airborne and ground troops to the theater. The rumor that the US will launch a major offensive after markets close on Friday is picking up steam. Adding to the nervous attitude is a report in Axios that senior US officials are planning a “final blow” that would involve increased bombing and attempts to overtake several islands in the Persian Gulf in a bid to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These include Kharg, Abu Musa and Lakan islands, territory that is either a port of Iran’s oil export infrastructure or strategic footholds in its control over the Strait. The upside for traders is that any escalation in the war will likely be met by further Iranian missile strikes on key Gulf Arab oil…

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Filed under: News - @ March 26, 2026 3:29 pm