We have made no decisions about September
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At the usual post‑meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell outlined why policymakers chose to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% following July’s meeting and took reporters’ questions on the decision. Powell’s press conference takeaways Economy is in a solid position. Inflation is somewhat above target. Believe the current stance of policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way. Moderation in growth reflects a slowdown in consumer spending. Activity in the housing sector remains weak. Unemployment is low and has remained in a narrow range. Wide set of indicators suggests the job market is near maximum employment. Expects PCE up 2.5% and Core up 2.7% in 12 months through June. Most measures of longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with the Fed’s goal. Tariffs have exerted pressure on some goods, but the wider impact is uncertain. See current stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks. On track to wrap up policy review by late summer. We are modestly restrictive. Economy not behaving as though modestly restrictive policy is holding it back inappropriately. Expect to have more information in coming months. We have made no decisions about September. Statement about uncertainty reflects change since the last meeting; it had not diminished further since the June meeting. Been a very dynamic time for trade negotiations. Still a ways away from seeing where things settle. Many uncertainties are left to resolve. Feels like there’s much more to come. GDP and PDFP numbers came in right about where we expected them. If you look at the labour market, by many measures it is still in balance. Very similar to where they were a year ago, job creation has slowed, but so has the supply of workers. Demand and supply for workers are coming down at about the same rate. Downside…
Filed under: News - @ July 30, 2025 7:31 pm