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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opens its December 2025 session today, with the decision set for release tomorrow, December 10, at 2:00 p.m. ET. Investors and traders are watching closely to see whether the central bank will continue its easing cycle or surprise markets by holding rates steady. As the final policy announcement of the year, the outcome carries considerable weight for crypto markets. Sponsored Sponsored The Rate Cut Scenario: What Happens if the Fed Delivers a 25 bps Cut in December As the announcement nears, market expectations are leaning heavily toward a rate cut, with a 25-basis-point move seen as the most likely outcome. Data from CME FedWatch shows traders assigning an 89.4% chance to a quarter-point cut at the December 10 meeting. In contrast, only about 10.6% of market participants believe the Fed will keep rates at the current 3.75%-4.00% range. Fed Rate Cut Odds in December. Source: CME FedWatch If the Fed proceeds with a cut, it would be the third in a row this year, following the adjustments in September and October. This would bring the interest rate down to 3.50%–3.75%. September’s cut triggered a brief lift in the crypto market, with Bitcoin and Ethereum posting gains. At the same time, the US dollar dropped to its weakest level since early 2022. Nonetheless, the broader market downturn muted the impact of the October cut. In December, volatility remains elevated, with sharp swings in both directions. Still, many analysts argue that another cut at this stage would likely be viewed as “bullish” for crypto. Sponsored Sponsored “If you think this is not bullish for Bitcoin and risk assets, you are not paying attention. Prepare for volatility. Prepare for green candles,” an analyst said. For cryptocurrencies, such a standard adjustment is viewed as mildly bullish, as it…

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Filed under: News - @ December 9, 2025 2:26 pm