Participants use the USDC stablecoin to trade “yes” or “no” shares on events like elections, financial milestones, or regulatory decisions. The prices reflect the collective market sentiment on the likelihood of an outcome — effectively turning the platform into a real-time prediction engine driven by incentives.

July 31 Outlook: Traders Grow Pessimistic

According to the first chart from Polymarket, the chances of a Ripple ETF being approved by July 31, 2025 have plummeted to just 22%, a sharp drop of 31 percentage points. This suggests that traders on the platform believe it’s unlikely the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will greenlight such an ETF in the immediate future.

The chart shows that initial optimism in December and January, where expectations peaked above 60%, has given way to steady declines. The most significant drop occurred in late May, reflecting possible shifts in sentiment based on regulatory delays or lack of official updates.

December 31 Forecast: Strong Belief in Year-End Approval

By contrast, Polymarket data for December 31, 2025 paints a far more optimistic picture. The probability of Ripple ETF approval by year-end stands at 83%, up 13 percentage points recently. Despite fluctuations earlier in the year, the chart now shows a steady climb in confidence through May.

This discrepancy between the July and December markets indicates that while near-term approval is seen as unlikely, investors and market participants are betting heavily on a resolution before the close of the year.

Conclusion

While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, long-term sentiment on Polymarket suggests strong confidence in a 2025 Ripple ETF approval. Traders appear to be pricing in regulatory progress, even if it takes several more months to materialize.

The post What Are the Chances XRP ETF Gets Approved? Polymarket Data Breaks It Down  appeared first on Coindoo.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ May 26, 2025 11:00 pm