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The post Why This Bitcoin Price Rally May Not Last appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Bitcoin finally looks alive again. After months of going nowhere, the price pushed up toward $98,000 and is now holding above $96,000. For the first time in a while, crypto traders are feeling some real momentum. But beneath the surface, not everyone is convinced this move will last. According to Michael Nadeau, the market’s structure tells a more bearish story, one that could mean this rally could fade if conditions are not met. The hidden force holding Bitcoin back One of the biggest factors shaping Bitcoin right now is not hype, ETFs, or social media buzz. It is real interest rates. Nadeau points out that Bitcoin often struggles when real interest rates rise. This happened clearly in 2022, when aggressive rate hikes crushed crypto prices. What stands out today is that since mid-October, real rates have started climbing again, and Bitcoin’s relationship with them has turned negative. In simple terms, when safer investments start paying more, money tends to move away from risky assets like crypto. That shift can quietly limit how far Bitcoin can run. Why cycles still matter in crypto Many traders love talking about the famous four-year Bitcoin cycle. Nadeau believes in cycles too, but not in a rigid, copy-paste way. “I’m a firm believer in cycles,” he said, but added that markets evolve. Instead of focusing on a calendar, he looks at how money flows through the system. In his view, crypto cycles usually move through three stages: An early bull phase A period of wealth creation A phase where that wealth gets distributed When he looks at this cycle, Nadeau sees signs that all three stages may already be behind us. Signs the easy money phase is over Earlier…

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Filed under: News - @ January 16, 2026 9:28 pm