The post Will 90% No-Cut Probability Pressure BTC? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin price continues to trade within a defined range as macro pressure intersects with weakening momentum. The most recent development in the BTC price was the recovery of the price to the $90,000 mark towards the major supply zone. Meanwhile, the markets have set insurmountable odds on a Federal Reserve rate hold, eliminating a major support in the forms of liquidity.  Polymarket Signals A Fed Pause Headwind According to Polymarket, there is a 90 % chance for the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged in the January FOMC meeting. This is not an indication of uncertainty, but it is a sign of strong agreement. However, this matters for Bitcoin price because recent upside attempts relied on easing expectations, not confirmed liquidity expansion or policy support. Rates are maintained on a level that maintains real rates high and tightness of financial conditions historically lowers speculative risk-taking. Capital focuses on conservation, rather than growth when liquidity remains tight. As a result, Bitcoin price loses the macro tailwind that previously supported breakout attempts. The probability curve reinforces this setup. There is only a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, and further reduction has very low probability. This alignment curtails potential and prevents volatility driven reaction to upside. Hence, the next FOMC meeting is a ceiling and not a catalyst. And therefore, as long as rate expectations remain anchored, Bitcoin price faces a macro headwind that favors consolidation or retracement instead of directional acceleration. Fed Rate Cut Decision Chart (Source: Polymarket) Expert Flags Institutional Support But Weak Momentum Analyst Ted pointed to the inability of Bitcoin to re-enter the supply zone of $94,000-95,000 besides the fact that BTC remains above $92,000. According to the analyst, Bitcoin price remains in a favorable position to reclaim this zone so long so it remains above $92,000, citing…

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Filed under: News - @ January 7, 2026 6:27 pm