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A cargo ship sits outside of the Port of Elizabeth marine terminal seen from Bayonne, New Jersey, U.S., April 9 2025. Shannon Stapleton | Reuters The World Trade Organization on Tuesday hiked its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 but warned that the outlook for 2026 had deteriorated. In its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report published on Tuesday, the WTO predicted that trade volume growth in 2025 would stand at 2.4%, up sharply from a previous estimate of 0.9% in the trade body’s August report. The outlook for next year is not so rosy, however, with the organization slashing its previous expectation of 1.8% trade volume growth next year to a lackluster 0.5%. “Trade growth is expected to slow in 2026 as the global economy cools and as the full impact of higher tariffs is finally felt for a full year,” the WTO said. Trade tariffs have become a dominant feature, and headwind, for global commerce since U.S. President Donald Trump shocked friends and foes alike with his widescale tariffs regime in April. Countries scrambled to reach trade deals with the White House but even allies, such as the U.K., have seen a baseline 10% tariff remain on goods exported to the U.S. Front-loading imports Global trade volumes rose sharply in the first half of 2025 — up 4.9% year-on-year — with several factors contributing to the robust expansion. These included the front-loading of imports into the U.S. in anticipation of higher trade tariffs, and favorable macroeconomic conditions with disinflation, supportive fiscal policies and tight labor markets boosting real incomes and spending in major economies, the WTO said. Strong growth in emerging markets and increased demand for AI-related goods — including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment — also fueled global trade growth, it added, with AI-related spending…

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Filed under: News - @ October 7, 2025 1:29 pm