On May 16, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres rejected a joint motion by Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) aimed at modifying existing injunctions and reducing Ripple’s $125 million civil penalty.

Judge Torres’ Ruling Dampens XRP Sentiment

The ruling delivered a significant blow to XRP’s momentum, sending its price tumbling to a low of $2.2994 on May 17 before it found tentative support near $2.31.

XRP was trading at around $2.39 at press time. Source: XRP Liquid Index (XRPLX) via Brave New Coin

The legal deadlock, part of the long-running XRP lawsuit, is beginning to weigh more heavily on investor confidence. “Without clarity from the court, institutional demand may remain sidelined,” noted attorney John E. Deaton, who has been closely involved in amicus efforts in the Ripple lawsuit. According to Deaton, the SEC would need to publicly concede that XRP is not a security and that its legal stance was flawed—an admission that could shift the landscape entirely.

XRP Price Struggles as Open Interest Declines

In parallel with the legal turbulence, XRP price has come under notable bearish pressure. On May 17, XRP fell by 2.03% to $2.36, continuing a downward trend amid declining trading activity. Derivatives data from Coinglass shows a drop in open interest to $4.75 billion, indicating that leveraged traders are exiting long positions. Trading volumes also dropped by over 29%, signaling a retreat from speculative enthusiasm.

 

XRP open interest declined by 0.58%, signaling growing exhaustion among derivative traders. Source: The Crypto Bull via X

While some top accounts remain net long on XRP, the broader market has tilted bearish, with a majority of traders expecting further downside. Binance’s long/short ratio dipping below 1.0 further confirms this negative sentiment.

XRP is currently trading near its volume-weighted average price of $2.34. A sustained dip below this level may expose the asset to a retest of the $2.02 support zone. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart have also begun narrowing, which often signals a breakout is on the horizon—though not necessarily in a bullish direction.

ETF Approval Outlook Dims—But Not Dead

Despite the court’s latest setback, the potential for XRP to secure ETF approval remains alive, albeit delayed. Polymarket currently places the odds of an XRP-spot ETF being approved by December 2025 at 83%, slightly lower than the 87% recorded in March but still optimistic. Analysts say that for ETF applications to gain traction, the SEC must resolve its legal posture toward XRP, which remains uncertain post-ruling.

“ETF approval will hinge on the SEC’s next move,” said a market strategist at Finance Magnates. “If they delay their decision again, XRP could consolidate or decline further.” Multiple ETF filings face critical deadlines this week, but any surprise greenlight now seems unlikely.

Ripple Price Forecast: Downside Risk or Relief Rally?

The Ripple crypto market is currently caught between opposing forces. On one side, institutional uncertainty and legal ambiguity have triggered bearish sentiment. On the other, long-term fundamentals and potential regulatory clarity offer a bullish backdrop.

XRP shows potential for a rebound as the TD Sequential indicator flashes multiple buy signals on the hourly chart. Source: Ali Martinez via X

Technically, XRP remains above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, suggesting that macro bullish momentum is still intact. A breakout above $2.50 could reignite upward momentum toward $2.65 and potentially the 2025 high of $3.3999. Conversely, failure to hold the $2.31 support may lead to a drop toward $2 or even the $1.50 region if bearish momentum accelerates.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53.40, leaving room for upward movement before overbought conditions set in. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram is trending downward, reinforcing the view that bullish energy is fading.

Ripple XRP News: Broader Market and Political Catalysts

Beyond the courtroom, XRP value continues to be influenced by broader market trends and political developments. The cryptocurrency surged earlier this year, hitting $3.3999, fueled in part by optimism surrounding pro-crypto signals from Donald Trump and the potential for regulatory reform under his administration.

Ripple news regarding its partnerships with institutions like Bank of America and its continued focus on cross-border payment solutions remain bullish fundamentals. But until legal uncertainties are resolved, these factors are unlikely to drive immediate price growth.

The Ripple ledger continues to attract development activity, including the recent launch of Vaultro’s decentralized index fund dashboard, which shows expanding utility of the network. However, these advancements are being overshadowed by the uncertainty stemming from the ongoing Ripple lawsuit.

Community Optimism Remains High Despite Legal Challenges

Despite the recent downturn, community sentiment around Ripple XRP news remains buoyant. Influencers on X (formerly Twitter) are forecasting ambitious XRP price targets, with some predicting ranges between $10 and $30 by June 2025, assuming ETF approvals and wider adoption.

XRP price prediction has been revised higher to a bullish range of $10.00–$30.00 by the end of June. Source: The Real Remi Relief via X

However, these forecasts are often speculative and not always grounded in technical or fundamental analysis. “We’re in a wait-and-see phase,” said a market analyst. “The legal and regulatory climate will dictate the next major move, not social media hype.”

Looking Forward: Uncertainty Defines the Path Ahead

As of now, the XRP SEC lawsuits continue to cast a long shadow over the token’s short-term performance. Judge Torres’ rejection of the joint motion has delayed potential resolution, and with the next court deadline not until mid-June, traders may continue to tread cautiously.

For investors tracking Ripple currency price or XRP price prediction models, the key will be whether Ripple and the SEC can reach a more definitive settlement. Until then, the Ripple market may remain in limbo—caught between cautious optimism and mounting legal fatigue.

While the long-term vision for Ripple as a bridge currency and XRP as a scalable asset remains intact, near-term volatility and legal uncertainty suggest a bumpy road ahead. Whether XRP reclaims bullish ground or tests new lows will largely depend on the next move in the Ripple lawsuit.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ May 18, 2025 5:00 pm