Analyst Forecasts More Choppy Bitcoin Trading and Pain Ahead
They note that post-halving price explosions have historically taken time, viewing the current slowdown as typical rather than alarming.
Despite macroeconomic challenges, indicators like the one-year SMA confirm ongoing bull market conditions, suggesting continued investor confidence.
While Bitcoin is trading in a sideways range and appears undecided where to head next, many observers are unsure too, wondering if this is the end of the bull market already. Stockmoney Lizards, avid social commentator, doesn’t think so.
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On social platform X they said current conditions are a correction which likely sends BTC back to US$50k (AU$75.9k). And they believe this to be temporary, meaning the bull run is not cancelled.
Wonder why the halving didn’t lead to an explosion in BTC price? Stockmoney Lizards say this is quite normal. In past halvings it took weeks or even months for a further upside.
So why is the market correcting? Simply put: After going up 300% a correction is not unusual, Stockmoney Lizards said. There are also macro headwinds which impact investor sentiment:
Necessary correction after >300% up only, war, recession fears, inflation and reduced ETF buying…
The analysts also confirmed that we are in fact still in a bull market. The one-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) “shows that we are still in the very very green zone here,” they added.
Bitcoin in past bull markets, source: Stockmoney Lizards via TradingView
This typically signals strong ongoing market optimism, suggesting that, despite any short-term volatility or pullbacks, the overall market trend remains upward.
Being in such a green zone is a characteristic of a bull market, where prices are expected to continue rising, reflecting investor confidence and a positive outlook on market conditions. Therefore, according to this indicator, it seems that we are indeed still experiencing the conditions of a bull market.
History Doesn’t Repeat, But it Rhymes
Analyst RektCapital added that historically, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the Halving in the 2015-17 cycle and 546 days after the Halving in the 2019-21 cycle. He said that if this pattern holds, the next peak could be between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
However, in the current cycle, Bitcoin is progressing about 220 days faster. Prolonged consolidation after the Halving could help realign this cycle more closely with previous Halving cycles, he concluded.
In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the Halving
In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the Halving
If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving…
That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle… pic.twitter.com/3prPFXAwky
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 28, 2024
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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ April 29, 2024 5:19 am