TLDR:

Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio dropped to 1.36, the lowest reading recorded since the 2023 bear market cycle.

Morgan Stanley launched a Bitcoin ETF, opening a new distribution channel for sidelined wealth management clients.

A DOL proposed rule could unlock 401(k) crypto access, potentially routing $120B from $12T in retirement assets.

Global M2 hit $117.5T with a 9.54% YoY rise, mirroring macro conditions that preceded prior Bitcoin bull cycles.

Bitcoin’s potential market bottom is drawing attention from analysts tracking on-chain metrics, institutional flows, and macroeconomic shifts.

Several converging signals suggest the worst of the current cycle’s drawdown may be over. While risks remain, particularly around geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the broader data landscape is pointing toward a gradual recovery setup for the leading cryptocurrency.

On-Chain Metrics and Institutional Demand Paint a Cautious But Bullish Picture

The on-chain MVRV ratio recently sat at 1.36, the lowest reading since the 2023 bear market. Short-term holder SOPR has been oscillating near 1.0, meaning many retail participants sold at a loss for weeks.

Long-term holders absorbed 92% of newly mined Bitcoin supply since mid-February, reflecting strong conviction among experienced market participants.

Exchange reserves for Bitcoin have hit all-time lows, further tightening available supply on the market. Ethereum also saw 31.6 million tokens pulled from exchanges in February alone. Liquid staking solutions are pushing locked ETH supply toward 35%, reducing sell pressure considerably.

Crypto analyst Kaff noted on X that ETF flows are also recovering. After $500 million in net outflows during Q1, March reversed the trend with $1.32 billion in inflows.

A single day in April recorded $471 million in net ETF inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT maintaining consistent demand even on days when competitors like FBTC and ARKB saw outflows.

Morgan Stanley has since launched a Bitcoin ETF, creating a fresh distribution channel targeting wealth management clients.

Strategy holds approximately 780,000 BTC at an average cost of $75,500 but shows no signs of forced selling, reinforcing the structurally long positioning among major institutional holders.

Macro Conditions and Slow-Moving Capital Are Quietly Shifting the Landscape

Global M2 money supply recently reached $117.5 trillion, up 9.54% year-over-year. Bitcoin has historically followed M2 expansion with a 60 to 90-day lag, and the dollar index fell roughly 2.6% in April. Together, these factors mirror the macro setups that preceded prior Bitcoin bull cycles.

Stablecoin supply has reached an all-time high of $318 billion, representing significant dry powder sitting on the sidelines.

Regulatory clarity is also progressing, with SAB 121 removed, the GENIUS Act now live, and MiCA fully rolling across Europe.

Perhaps the least-discussed development is a Department of Labor proposed rule filed March 30. It would allow 401(k) plans to offer crypto under a fiduciary safe harbor. A 1% allocation from the $12 trillion in 401(k) assets would channel $120 billion into the market.

Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala sovereign fund already holds over $1.1 billion in IBIT. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has built indirect Bitcoin exposure through Strategy holdings.

Retirement and sovereign capital carries a 20 to 40-year horizon and does not react to short-term price swings.

The post Bitcoin Bottom Likely In, Says Analyst as On-Chain Data and Institutional Flows Converge appeared first on Blockonomi.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ April 16, 2026 9:23 am