“Sell in May and Go Away” – Is It Time for Bitcoin to Take a Break?

Hong Kong ETFs underperform on their debut with approximately USD $12 million in volume.
Bitcoin is potentially facing its worst monthly close in 16 months, yet it’s still up 45% since the start of the year.
Bitcoin trading volume has decreased by approximately 65% since February. Is a drop below $60,000 imminent?

Bitcoin stuck within a tight range…but will it continue?

Bitcoin is currently experiencing a turbulent period, struggling to maintain key support levels around $60,000 – $61,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $60,850, with the worst monthly close in the last 16 months potentially looming. The cryptocurrency is on track for a retracement of approximately 15%, a drop not seen since November 2022, when Bitcoin closed 17% lower than the previous month. Furthermore, Hong Kong’s Bitcoin ETF, which launched today (April 30th 2024), failed to meet expectations despite a positive start on Monday morning.

Is investor interest stagnating?

Uncertainty in global markets continues to impact the crypto market, with Bitcoin’s volume dropping by approximately 65% since February, according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment. This challenging environment has dampened trader and investor confidence, contributing to the market’s ongoing stagnation.

Understanding Market Volume

Volume can be defined as market participation—it represents the number of buyers and sellers in the market and serves as an indicator to gauge the sentiment around a particular asset. For example, a large trading volume for an asset indicates a high level of interest from either buyers or sellers.

Hong Kong ETF’s Disappointing Debut

The launch of the Hong Kong ETF was highly anticipated, expected to rekindle interest and potentially propel Bitcoin off the key support level around $61,000. Despite initial highs of approximately $64,700, Bitcoin has since declined by 6% to $60,850. The ETF, projected to attract over $100 million in trades, however only managed $12 million on its first day, prompting an early sell-off.

Bitcoin’s Market Outlook

Here’s my take on Bitcoin and its potential path if the current support level at approximately $61,000 is breached.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/bJqswBwi/

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