The Bitcoin Bear Market May Have Already Started, Signal Shows
Is the Bitcoin bear market already starting to rear its head? One new piece of market data suggests this could be the case.
As of Monday, Bitcoin is entering what could be its fifth negative weekly close in a row. Historically, Bitcoin has never closed five consecutive weeks in the red outside of a bear market environment.
A Slow But Steady Pullback
Twitter user MisterCh0c took notice of the pattern on Monday, and was quick to receive backlash from more bullish followers.
Some noted that the severity of the drawdown, which has persisted throughout April, is mild compared to previous bull markets. Closing at a weekly high of roughly $71,400 on March 31, the coin closed this Sunday at roughly $63,000 – about a 12% drop.
Lead Glassnode analyst James Check backed that observation on Friday, noting that Bitcoin has only declined by 20% at most from its high of $73,000 this cycle. By comparison, the 2017 bull market experienced multiple drawdowns of 20% to 30%.in size.
Furthermore, brett_eth noted that 4 consecutive red weekly candle events have occurred in bull markets before. In fact, two of those instances occurred right after previous Bitcoin halvings, as is what transpired earlier this month.
What About The ETFs?
Even if substantial pullbacks are normal for a bull market, many are still surprised that Bitcoin sell pressure has spread to the newly launched Bitcoin spot ETFs.
The funds have soaked up over $12 billion of net inflows since January, yet those flows have stagnated over the past month, with outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) often surpassing inflows to all other Bitcoin ETFs combined.
Macro investment analyst Jim Bianco believes the evidence points to “degen retail” being the dominant buyer of Bitcoin ETFs so far. That’s a bearish sign, he argues, since it means such investors will “bail at the first signs of trouble” – particularly when price moves below their cost basis of $58,000.
As a counterpoint, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that most investors haven’t reported their ETF holdings in 13F filings yet. It can also take time for advisors to get involved: BITO, the Bitcoin futures ETF, has investment holdings 40% owned by advisors after 30 months on the market.
“II would advise against dying on this hill as you are basically going against BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco etc and all their wholesaling firepower, relationships and advisors’ love of their ETFs,” Balchunas added in a tweet on Monday. “The track record speaks for self.”
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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ April 29, 2024 11:16 pm