The post Trump warns US-Iran ceasefire may end if no deal by Wednesday appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Trump has warned that the US-Iran ceasefire may not be extended if no deal is reached by Wednesday. The odds of Trump announcing the end of the ceasefire by April 21 are at 8% YES, down sharply from 30% a week ago. Market reaction The ceasefire end market has dropped steeply with only five days left to resolve. The ceasefire broken by April 21 market sits at 9% YES, down from 33% a week ago. Traders are skeptical about immediate escalation despite Trump’s rhetoric. In the Hormuz blockade market, odds for lifting the blockade by April 19 are at 15.5% YES. Trump’s commitment to maintaining the blockade unless a deal is reached has pushed these odds down from 34% to 18%. Why it matters Trump’s statement is a signal but not a definitive action. Traders appear to be pricing in last-minute diplomacy, given that the odds haven’t surged despite the warning. At 8¢, a YES share on Trump ending the ceasefire by April 21 pays $1 if resolved, a 12.5x return. For that bet to make sense, a trader would need to believe no diplomatic breakthrough occurs in the next five days. What to watch The ceasefire market trades $5,810 in USDC daily and requires $1,700 to move the price 5 points. The largest move was a 1-point spike, suggesting limited conviction. The Hormuz blockade market is more liquid at $11,934 in daily USDC volume, yet it only takes $257 to move the odds 5 points. Watch for updates from the Islamabad talks, Trump’s social media activity, and any Pentagon announcements. Changes in operational language or confirmation of negotiations would move these markets. API access Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-warns-us-iran-ceasefire-may-end-if-no-deal-by-wednesday/

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Filed under: News - @ April 18, 2026 5:23 am